Global macro/markets, “Glee” fan and Madridista. Hosting the @TheMacroMarket podcast.

Copenhagen
Joined April 2017
AndreasStenoLarsen retweeted
EUROPEAN ENERGY CRUNCH: France day-ahead electricity broke today above €300 per MWh, surpassing the October peak and setting a fresh 9-year high. It's the only 4th in history the price has surged above €300 (every previous time was during a winter cold snap, and was very brief)
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AAAAAAAAAAH! 🇩🇪
🇩🇪 IFO expectations indicates subzero GDP growth in 2022. Or is it an Oktoberfest => surging Covid-19 cases => exaggerated pessimism delusion?
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AndreasStenoLarsen retweeted
🇩🇪 IFO expectations indicates subzero GDP growth in 2022. Or is it an Oktoberfest => surging Covid-19 cases => exaggerated pessimism delusion?
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A bit more than a month later..
Erdogan keeps arguing that rates need to be lowered amidst high inflation. That won't end well for TRY..
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Growth prospects for Germany are starting to look pretty mediocre for 2022 to say it the least due to: 1) lockdown effects into Q1 2) China slowing 3) lagged effects of the energy crisis and so on..
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German IFO back in contraction territory (for industrial output) from a momentum perspective again and this is even before we see the true lock-down effects 0% growth in Germany in 2022? EUR dislikes it!
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Our take on the meltdown in Turkey here -> corporate.nordea.com/article…
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So here is a sad prediction The current Covid-wave will turn into the worst so far
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AndreasStenoLarsen retweeted
So here is what we know about the vaccine by now: 1) Effect on transmission is suprisingly close to 0% after 6 months 2) Effect against severe ilness is still pretty decent after six months Corona passports (without testing of vaccinated people) are hence 100% senseless
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Turkey is getting roasted today and it is not even Thanksgiving yet!
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What is the consequence of the below? The case count will go absolutely bananas through December/January.
So here is what we know about the vaccine by now: 1) Effect on transmission is suprisingly close to 0% after 6 months 2) Effect against severe ilness is still pretty decent after six months Corona passports (without testing of vaccinated people) are hence 100% senseless
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So here is what we know about the vaccine by now: 1) Effect on transmission is suprisingly close to 0% after 6 months 2) Effect against severe ilness is still pretty decent after six months Corona passports (without testing of vaccinated people) are hence 100% senseless
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Study from Qatar attached as a chart. Danish authorities suggest thet 5-6% effect against transmission is left after six months
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It is in other words hard to imagine a solid TRY scenario as long as Erdogan effectively runs monetary policy.
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