Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, a global independent macroeconomic research firm @MI2Partners, and co-creator of Macro Insiders @RealVision

Vail, CO
Joined February 2017
We've been here before. Neil Woodford was a superstar portfolio manager. But he traded liquidity for performance and paid the price
How does #ARK implode? Most new investors are losing money (VWAP since Jan $120). As they sell, so does Cathie. But some of her names are illiquid. So she sells liquid stuff ie #TSLA #ROKU. End game is a losing portfolio of infinite duration stocks you never wanted to own!
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Julian Brigden retweeted
“When it comes to #rate hikes, I think the big issue here is what it takes to slow this #economy down because I know there’s tendency to look at things and say: ‘It’s ok, we can keep things going as they are.’ We actually can’t. We’re actually growing too fast.” - @JulianMI2
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How does #ARK implode? Most new investors are losing money (VWAP since Jan $120). As they sell, so does Cathie. But some of her names are illiquid. So she sells liquid stuff ie #TSLA #ROKU. End game is a losing portfolio of infinite duration stocks you never wanted to own!
As the Fed accelerates the end of QE twitter.lurkmore.com/JulianMI2/status… those stocks that lived by the sword will die by the same hand. #arkk is a perfect example of a liquidity driven bubble. If the analogy holds, today's close below the May lows opens us up to a major acceleration!
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Julian Brigden retweeted
@JulianMI2 of MI2 shares his views on CEOs and how they contribute to the "financialization of the real economy." ℹ️ This video bite is part of a full #QuickHit episode on #inflation and if that is #transitory. Watch the episode here: youtube.lurkmore.com/mWqbDEcaJGw
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Given my prior tweet Today's employment data is even more important. Despite a 0.1% increase in participation rate, unempl. fell to 4.2%. At this rate we will be back to pre-CV-19 lows by Jan!!!! That will really increase pressure on Fed to remove accommodation.
Powell just admitted that because of CV, the Fed were wrong to assume the participation rate would recover. Hence now the risk is higher inflation and wages become embedded = they need to tighten more quickly. Plus as a result Omicron = inflationary not deflationary. All Bad!
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When it comes to inflation fighting giants, there's Paul Volcker and on the other side of the Atlantic Otmar Issing. This is definitely worth reading.
'To paraphrase former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder, inflation occurs when people start talking about inflation. And the topic of inflation has become salient almost everywhere, indicating a clear change in citizens' attitudes.' project-syndicate.org/commen…
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As the Fed accelerates the end of QE twitter.lurkmore.com/JulianMI2/status… those stocks that lived by the sword will die by the same hand. #arkk is a perfect example of a liquidity driven bubble. If the analogy holds, today's close below the May lows opens us up to a major acceleration!
With recent hawkish Fed rhetoric, the odds are rising of another sharp leg higher in bond yields. In that scenario, #ARKK, which still looks like a classic bubble is extremely vulnerable. I'm watching May lows.
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Powell just admitted that because of CV, the Fed were wrong to assume the participation rate would recover. Hence now the risk is higher inflation and wages become embedded = they need to tighten more quickly. Plus as a result Omicron = inflationary not deflationary. All Bad!
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Spot on Emma. However, I think it's dangerous to even think about buying risk yet. That's because clearly Powell sees Omicron as inflationary in an econ where prices are already too high and that = worse combo for stocks.
Dow falls 600 after Powell says removing QE faster may be appropriate. So what level do ya’ll think we get to on the SPX before Powell does what he’s known and pivot like there ain’t no tomorrow? ⁦@JulianMI2⁩ ⁩ wsj.com/articles/global-stoc…
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Julian Brigden retweeted
The #macro insight highlights? #Inflation will peak at some point early next year, but at a point higher than expected and fall less than hoped; #supplychain issues are a function of constraint not #demand; extraordinary labour demand + wage growth will support the #consumer.
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Julian Brigden retweeted
Our latest “Deep Dive” from @JulianMI2 is out, guiding us into 2022 and giving a sense of where we are, and what could surprise money mangers as they prepare for Q1 and beyond. Download the full report here: mi2partners.com/macroinsider…
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While the US is in the inflation sweet spot i.e. incomes are keeping pace with prices. In the Europe, the cost increases are so unprecedented that companies won't be able to fully pass them to customers. Take Spain where PPI hit 31.9%. #stagflation is a real threat!
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Julian Brigden retweeted
In last week’s newsletter we looked at the #labormarket amid high levels of quits and “excess retirements.” Workers are striking while the iron’s hot with recent union negotiations resulting in higher #wages, bonus structures & more. Don’t miss this week’s:mi2partners.com/newsletter/
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Many thanks mate. You are too kind!
@JulianMI2 has been superb on this issue. Don’t miss anything he writes or says on the inflation narrative folks. Best in breed
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With recent hawkish Fed rhetoric, the odds are rising of another sharp leg higher in bond yields. In that scenario, #ARKK, which still looks like a classic bubble is extremely vulnerable. I'm watching May lows.
So far so good! If we keep following this pattern, #arkk sells off back towards $100 twitter.lurkmore.com/JulianMI2/status… Then we get a solid bounce, before the next major leg lower, which takes us towards $60
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Julian Brigden retweeted
“It’s been one of our gigs for awhile now that we think inflation is really rampant here in the US and indeed globally...we think there’s at least 1 more push coming, and it’s going to be a very ugly one.” Hear more from @JulianMI2 on the latest #inflation trends. #Macroeconomics
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Had a fantastic chat with Mike Taylor. One of the best equity investors out there!
ON REAL VISION WITH JULIAN BRIGDEN RIGHT NOW
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Julian Brigden retweeted
We struggle to believe it’s ever “different this time,” so we did a deep dive into 700-years of history on #inflation trends to find out what we’re in store for. The bottom line? Our current environment is consistent with historic conditions that have led to inflationary episodes
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