The larger the number of people involved, the easier it is for them to delude themselves that what they are doing is smart

Joined November 2012
this
Replying to @nope_its_lily
"If you're short vol, you make money and then you die. If you're long vol, you die before you can make money." -old options trader (mostly dead)
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
1/6. Thread on #ETH volatilities: Mar22 upside calls are currently undergoing a massive buying inflow. It started with @RaoulGMI 15k call recommendation a few weeks ago. Since then Mar22 went on its own.
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#BTC was this the first fat finger futures roll?
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
Felt cute and looked at some nat gas options on CME's website. Let's go on a little ride to talk about trade prospecting. We are going to need some background... cmegroup.com/markets/energy/…
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
1/ On NFTs 2030 However bullish you are on NFTs, you are wrong. You are insufficiently bullish. 6529 has gone to the mountaintop and there is almost nothing in life that 6529 is as sure of as this
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equities are setting the tone again today for #BTC and #ETH. Let's see if there is a rebalance rally into the close in the indices and if so, how crypto reacts to that. I would not want to be long if S&P closes near the lows
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The street musician is blasting the interstellar theme on his accordion while I'm spinning in circles in my office chair and wait for the #FOMC to break everybodies ankles
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ETHBTC back to where it belongs🤡
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
Steal ideas, not implementation. I see you, with your "small but beautiful" pot of capital, trying to make it bigger. A🧵on easy games, stealing ideas, and not competing in games you don't need to compete in. 1/n
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Risk off day in the equities. Not saying i'm bearish on crypto but I'll have a very close eye on how especially BTC reacts to further action in indices and bonds. Right now there still is a lot of +delta in the market and a dump in equities could trigger another dump
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
this will be the next installment of my "quant trading foe non-quants" series. yn345.infusionsoft.app/app/o…
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Great summary of smile hedging
Friday night thoughts about volatility modeling... Following my latest blog about volatility surface and smile risk, I got few DMs asking about the how and why of volatility modeling, and while I did put a long (and elaborated) piece about the history of volatility modeling
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on the way up to 42k I didn't see a whole lot of short liquidations. There are a good amount of short liquidations, however, on rather small down moves. Market is positioned long and I don't think there is much upside from here until we either range or squeeze late longs #BTC
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
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IMO #BTC and #ETH looks like shit rn. Zero volume, zero volatility and most important: zero liquidations. There are no short term traders in the market who could provide exit liquidity. I was expecting a short squeeze, but every up move was just for a couple of $.
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Most of the positions are long term with a stop below 30k in BTC. Not bearish for the time being but downside risk increases day by day unless we see a move above 35k soon(ish)
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Check out the pen flip!
This first part of the interview is already a #Masterpiece for #Financial and #Corporate #Education as well as #Presenting #Companies in a modern way to #Investors. In this session @TSX_NOU CEO of Nouveau Monde Graphite | NYSE: NMG , the upcoming #markelnkd.in/dEnAcCC
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
High-level model for the returns to providing liquidity in Uniswap v2 liquidity pools. There are two assets X and Y in the pool with reserves x and y of each, with pool constant k = x * y and price p = x / y.
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WarrenMuppet retweeted
I get that tech monopolies are "bond proxies" according to your model. Just remember: when they raid the whore house they take all the girls, not just the ugly ones.
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