Global Chief Economist & Strategist - Manulife Investment Management. I love charts, markets and my kid. Opinions mine. She/her/elle.

Montreal
Joined June 2009
So, to be clear, upside surprises to inflation (which is still relatively low and probably transitory) and downside surprises to growth (which is still surging) is not technically "Stagflation". But... that doesn't mean it can't trade like it for a while...
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I'm starting a weekly piece on LinkedIn that runs down the top econ/mkt Qs I got this week. This wk: a framework for omicron, why something big happened from Powell this week (more imp. than the taper Q) and why I actually liked the US jobs report 👇👇👇 linkedin.com/pulse/rearview-…
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Frances Donald retweeted
When I think about bonds, I think about Bill Belichick's saying "DO YOUR JOB"! Meaning if everyone does what they're supposed to do, we win. In past week, bonds are doing their job in a 60/40 portfolio: BBG Barclays Treasury Index +1.3% S&P 500 -4.0% #NewEnglandPatriots
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After advising everyone I know to get their holiday shopping done early because #hashtag supply chains, I forgot to purchase my mother in law’s gift which is now said to arrive by “Dec 23”😩Pray for me. Also, all my supply chain analysis will be done through an emotional lens now
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Frances Donald retweeted
Maybe the sellside published their 2022 outlooks a bit early this year.... 😆
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I love being back in Montreal.
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Frances Donald retweeted
We estimate that about 30% of the LFPR shortfall, or 0.4ppt, is structural (aging of the US population). Remaining 70% attributable to early retirement, lost immigration, & some temporary headwinds stemming from lingering Covid fear, childcare responsibilities, & discouragement
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Frances Donald retweeted
Then there is the loss in immigration, which fell precipitously 2016-2019 and the fell further w/pandemic. This is one of the major reasons labor force growth has slowed to a virtual standstill even as demand for workers surged.
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Frances Donald retweeted
Productivity in the 2010s was spectacularly bad. Yes slow tech diffusion was part of it, but I'd bet the perma lukewarm economy didn't help...
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‘When faced with a major paradigm shift, analysts who know the most about a subject have the most to unlearn’ 🎯
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Replying to @DavidBeckworth
I like the levels version too stayathomemacro.substack.com…
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Frances Donald retweeted
(Bloomberg) - The number of containers sitting on docks at the port of Los Angeles has declined 29%, CEO Gene Seroka says. (via @business @conorsen)
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“Supply Chain Pressures Might Be Starting To Ease” (via @PantheonMacro)
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Whether it turns out to be the right policy move or not, this is fantastic central bank communication
Watch again: @Lagarde on how raising rates now could do the economy far more harm than good
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Frances Donald retweeted
Reminder of this, which shows inflation is not a simple excess demand story. - take relevant PMI parts (delivery times, input prices, stocks etc) - regress each on new orders, to REMOVE demand component - combine the residuals into an index
Replying to @darioperkins
I did this, by myself, using ACTUAL ECONOMETRICS. I'm a genius... CC @DavideOneglia who doubted me
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Frances Donald retweeted
The inflation surge has brought #bottlenecks under the spotlight Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward A short thread follows bis.org/publ/bisbull48.htm
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Replying to @darioperkins
That is why its interesting to measure fear of inflation next to actual inflation. We use AI to quantify financial narratives and one can see that inflation fears peaked (bottomed) in may and current levels dont exceed that.
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Frances Donald retweeted
GOLDMAN: “Most of the 5.0mn persons who have exited the labor force since the start of the pandemic are over age 55 (3.4mn), largely reflecting early (1.5mn) and natural (1mn) retirements that likely won’t reverse.”
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JPMORGAN: “ .. the working-age population .. has been falling for almost two years .. the vast majority of the shortfall .. appears driven by a decline in immigration to the United States, beginning during the Trump administration and continuing through the COVID pandemic.”
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